Oct 12, 2023

New research from the University of Oxford, England, has shown that Switzerland, the UK and Norway top the list of countries heading for dramatic increases in uncomfortably hot days, when temperatures break the international global warming 1.5°C target. The new research also shows such countries are ‘dangerously unprepared’ for the impacts of global warming and climate change. The study entitled, ‘Change in cooling degree days with global mean temperature increasing from 1.5°C to 2.0°C,’ explores the impact on global cooling demands in moving from 1.5°C to 2.0°C of global warming.

The study states that “Rising extreme heat is already driving an unprecedented surge in cooling demand, with the energy required for cooling by 2050 predicted to be equivalent to the combined electricity capacity of the United States, European Union and Japan in 2016.” It goes on to ask, “How much more cooling would be required if the Paris Agreement’s preferred 1.5°C limit is overshot, and global mean temperature increases to 2.0°C? The question is crucial, given the growing consensus that there is currently ‘no credible pathway to avoid warming to 1.5°C.”

While the forecast rises used in the study are a conservative estimates of likely temperature impacts, and do not include extreme events such as heatwaves, researchers warn that interventions and adaptations are essential now – to avoid spiraling and unprecedented energy demands.

Researchers have warned there is a vicious cycle when it comes to using air conditioning to cool buildings in the face of uncomfortable temperatures. The increased use of air conditioners triggers higher energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, which in turn leads to increased global warming, and higher cooling requirements. Co-author Dr Khosla explains, “We have to focus now on ways to keep people cool in a sustainable way… Without adequate interventions to promote sustainable cooling, we are likely to see a sharp increase in the use of energy guzzling systems, such as air conditioning. This could further increase emissions and lock us into a vicious cycle of burning fossil fuels to make feel cooler while making the world outside hotter.”

While sustainable cooling options can include window shutters, ventilation and fans, when air conditioning systems are used, it is therefore imperative that they are highly energy efficient and use low Global Warming Potential refrigerants.

The study warns that Central Africa will see the most extreme temperatures if the 1.5°C barrier is broken. But the report also shows the biggest leaps in days requiring cooling will be seen in Northern Europe. At the head of the researcher’s list are the UK and Switzerland, both of which are forecast for a rise of 30% in days when cooling is needed – potentially leading to significant growth in demand for power.

Top 10 countries by relative change in uncomfortably hot days:

The top ten countries that will experience the highest needs for cooling overall in a 2.0°C scenario are all in Africa, with central Africa most affected.

Top 10 countries by absolute change in uncomfortably hot days:

• Central African Republic
• Burkina Faso
• Mali
• South Sudan
• Nigeria
• Congo
• Democratic republic of The Congo
• Chad
• Uganda
• Cameroon.

Dr Youba Sokona, Vice-Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), commented, “This research shows that no country – from Switzerland to the Central African Republic – is safe from climate change. It should remind us of the need for global solidarity and cooperation in efforts to remain below 1.5°C warming. The extreme temperature increases predicted by this research also are evidence that cooling will soon no longer be a luxury but a necessity across Sub-Saharan Africa. Many African countries are now at an energy crossroads, and meeting increased energy demand for cooling will be a key challenge of sustainable development.”

For the analysis, the authors used the concept of ‘cooling degree days’, a method widely employed in research and weather forecasting to ascertain if cooling would be needed on a particular day to keep populations comfortable. They modelled the world in 60kmgrids every six hours to produce the temperature averages in the study, a process that makes the results some of the most reliable globally. Read the study at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01155-z

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